Who Would Help Egypt ?

Egypt's ousted President Mohammad Morsi was left alone throughout his presidency. (Photo: Reuters)

The best way to get a good foreign financial aid: Elect a Muslim Brotherhood government, call on people to stage protests and ask the military to overthrow it. Lots of cash and loans will start pouring into your country, particularly from the Gulf.

This is basically what happened in Egypt this week. In just two days, the United Arab Emirates offered a grant of $1 billion and a loan of $2 billion, Saudi Arabia offered $3 billion in cash and loans and an additional $2 billion worth of much-needed fuel and Kuwait offered $4 billion in cash and loans.
The multibillion-dollar aid pledged by the wealthy Gulf nations created a breathing space for the crippled Egyptian economy and bought Cairo a window of four to six months to fix its finances. The package will allow Egypt, whose military removed freely elected President Mohammad Morsi last week, to boost its foreign reserves -- which had dwindled after more than two years of massive political turmoil. The aid will be enough to avert a balance of payments crunch by early 2014, economists estimate.

Egypt's foreign reserves totaled $14.92 billion at the end of June, down from $34 billion when former President Hosni Mubarak fell in February 2011. Most of the foreign reserves had dried up during the chaotic rule of the Egyptian army after Mubarak's ouster and they reached a critical minimum in December 2012, following mass protests against the controversial and divisive constitution the government drafted.
The foreign reserves have been falling by around $1-2 billion every month and the Gulf aid will be enough to shore up the Egyptian economy only until early 2014 if the ballooning budget deficit and political instability continue to threaten the state finances.
The rapid decision to send in aid to Egypt after the fall of Morsi, who hailed from the Muslim Brotherhood and was long distrusted by Gulf nations except Qatar, indicates that the interim regime will not be left alone. But the generous aid won't save Egypt unless the country tackles the monster that eats away at its economy -- political instability.
Instead of taking in huge sums of cash and loans, Egypt needs to fix its political turmoil for two major reasons: to attract foreign investment and revive tourism -- key to healing the widening budget deficit. Without restoring stability in the country, the foreign financial aid could save the world's largest Arab nation for only few months.
To achieve this, supporters of the army intervention should reach out to the opposition and put pressure on the military-backed interim government to avoid cracking down on the Muslim Brotherhood. In his last few weeks, Morsi had kept reiterating that his government enjoys popularity and that he was elected by the majority of Egyptians. He imposed his will on the people by frequently underlining the fact that he was backed by the majority. The supporters of the coup are now behaving with the same mentality, constantly stressing that most Egyptians backed the army intervention. Do votes of Muslim Brotherhood supporters count, one may ask.
A post-Morsi crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood and excluding Egypt's most organized political force from the political transition will no doubt bring instability to the country. The continuing economic meltdown, coupled with a campaign to undermine the ousted president, brought down Egypt's first freely elected government. There is no reason to think that the ailing economy, further crippled by the chaos, won't bring down the very political actors that ended Morsi's rule in an undemocratic fashion.
You can follow the author on Twitter @MahirZeynalov (English) and @MahirZeynalov_ (Turkish)


Catitan Sut:

Begitulah nasib Masir, Ummu ad-Dunya, sebuah negara yang sebahagian rakyatnya merasakan Masir lah negara terhebat di dunia, paling lama tamaddun, paling mempunyai ramai ulama dan paling ke depan dalam segi ilmu pengetahuan. 

Masir memang berada di depan pada masa dulu sehingga sekarang, sebut nama qari al-Quran, tentunya yang termasyhur adalah Syaikh Mahmoud al-Husairi, Syaikh Abdul Samad Abdul Basit . Sebut nama universiti pengajian Islam, tentunya yang termasyhurnya Universiti al-Azhar, sebut keajaiban dunia, tentunya pyramid di Giza, sebut nama penyanyi arab yang diminati, tentunya Ummi Kalthom dan Muhammad Abdul Wahab, sebut sungai yang terpenting dalam sejarah ketamaddun manusia, tentunya Sungai Nil.Sebutlah apa saja, kebanyakannya ada di Masir.... 

Sebut sahaja tentang Gerakan Islam dunia, tentu yang teratasnya adalah Ikhwan al-Muslimin. tidak ramai pemerhati dan pengkaji Gerakan Islam akan terkilan atau hairan kenapa Ikhwan tidak dapat menguasai politik Masir dari dulu sehingga sekarang. Ikhwan sendiri pun tidak bersungut tentang itu. Tetapi pemerhati dari latar belakang yang berbeza akan terkilan bagaimana "Amerika, ikon demokrasi dunia dapat campur tangan dalam menggulingkan Presiden Masir yang pertama dalam sejarah moden negara itu yang dipilih dalam pilihanraya bebas?". Seperti biasa imej Amerika dan janji Amerika bertentangan dengan tindakan dan kepentingan Amerika.

Amerika semakin menunjukkan wajahnya yang sebenar, wajah licik yang penuh tipu-daya. Dijanjikan kestabilan dan kebebasan di Iraq  selepas Saddam Husein, tetapi yang terjadi adalah pembunuhan dan penindasan yang berlarutan. Dijanjikan keamanan dan bebas dari ancaman terrorists dengan jatuhnya Taliban di Afghanistan, tetapi yang sebenarnya adalah kekacauan dan kadar jenayah yang semakin meningkat.

Keadaan di Masir pun barangkali serupa, dijanjikan dan digambarkan masa depan yang lebih damai dan makmur dengan terpecatnya Presiden Mursi, seoarang pelampau Islam ,  digantikan dengan sebuah masyarakat yang lebih dinamik ekonominya dan lebih liberal sikapnya akan dibentuk. Sehinggakan Amerika dan kuncu-kuncunya sanggup membiarkan suara rakyat di negara itu yang telah dizahirkan dalam pilihanraya menjadi ejekan dan sia-sia.. Campur-tangan secara langsung dan tidak langsung pihak Amerika dalam memusnahkan harapan sebuah negara yang mengamalkan demokrasi menggunakan kekuatan tentera. Ada di sebahagian negara, tentera Amerika sendiri yang dikerah, sementara di Masir tentera Masir yang dibaiayai Amerika yang dikerah....

Bayangan makhluk apa kah ini?. Makhluk yang menjanjikan syurga sekira manusia mengikut telunjuknya, tetapi syurga yang dijanjikan itu sebenarnya neraka. Makhluk yang mempunyai daya untuk menurunkan hujan dari lanit dan mengeluarkan emas kekayaan dari bumi demi meraih kekaguman mereka yang mendukungnya. Tetapi kekaguman itu tidak akan bertahan lama..... kerana ianya dibina di atas tipu daya dan kepalsuan.