Thursday, April 4, 2013

Peranan GPS Dalam Menempuh Perjalanan Ke Arah Perubahan



 Iran's Plan B in post-Assad Syria to create Alawite state

Murhaf Jouejati, a professor of Middle Eastern studies, says that the debate on Syria’s fragmentation has become more serious than ever because the country’s crisis has become more sectarianized. (Photo: Today’s Zaman, Mevlüt Karabulut)
The Plan B of Tehran, the strongest supporter of the Syrian regime, is to fragment the war-torn country and create an Alawite state in order to maintain its influence over the country after the fall of the regime, according to Murhaf Jouejati, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C.
“Syria is a major stake for Iran. Syria is Iran's door to Mediterranean and Arab politics. The fall of the regime would be a tremendous strategic loss for Tehran,” Jouejati, who is a prominent opponent of the regime, said in an exclusive interview with Today's Zaman.
According to Jouejati, Iran's Plan B would involve dividing the country and creating an Alawite state to continue its sectarian policies in Syria through Hezbollah, the Shiite group in Lebanon. “I think no one in the region will want this to happen,” said Jouejati.
Iranian politics have been quite influential in Syria and Lebanon, especially through Hezbollah. The downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime is expected to inflict a deadly blow to the Syria-Iran-Hezbollah axis. Hezbollah and Iran have so far strongly supported the Assad regime politically.
“In the Syrian crisis, Iran will not take a step back,” said Jouejati.
Despite the growing international pressure over its stance in the crisis, Iran continues to stand by its ally, the Syrian regime.
Syria has always been of critical importance to Tehran as a transit route to reach out to Hezbollah in order to maintain a stalemate with Israel.
“We were not talking about the fragmentation of the country before. However, the debate on the fragmentation of Syria is more serious than ever because the crisis in the country has become more sectarianized. We, Syrians, are against the division of the country which could lead to the establishment of an Alawite state,” said Jouejati.
According to Jouejati, the Assad regime is playing upon the fears of the Alawite community, which is concerned about their future in the post-Assad era.
“We do see that the Alawite minority is feeling guilty due to their association with the regime, but they should not be. This is what the regime wants,” said Jouejati.
Assad and his family belong to the Alawite sect, which is an offshoot of Shiite Islam. Alawites in Syria compose nearly 15 percent of the total population.
In the first meeting of its kind, Alawites who support the uprising against Assad came together last week in Cairo, where they called for the overthrow of the regime and the maintenance of the territorial integrity of Syria. The meeting sought to distance the Alawite community from wholesale association with the regime's attempts to crush the two-year uprising.
“The meeting in Cairo is of great importance. Alawites want the world to know that the crisis in Syria has no sectarian point, but rather it is a national uprising and that they are part of this uprising against their Alawite president. So, the uprising is not because Assad is Alawite but because he is a dictator who views Syria as his family farm,” said Jouejati, adding that the Assad family abused Syria for decades.

Syria last area of influence for Russians in Middle East

Russia, a faithful ally of the Syrian regime, as well as a permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC), has systematically vetoed any resolution which might pave the way for Assad's departure.
“Russians do not want the change of regime in Syria coming from outside pressure, particularly from the US and its allies. But their argument is flawed. It is the people of Syria that want the change of regime, not just US allies,” said Jouejati.
Moscow has been at loggerheads with the West and Arab states that have called on Assad to quit and says Assad's exit from power must not be a precondition for a political solution.
Russia is a long-time arms supplier to Damascus and maintains a naval facility in Syria.
“In addition to all the material interest that Russia has invested in Syria over the decades of their relationship, there is the general principle, which is that Syria is their last area of influence in the Middle East. Giving up Syria will not be very easy for the Russians,” said Jouejati.

Failure of interim gov't in Syria to be major victory for Assad

The Syrian opposition recently elected a prime minister to head a transitional government that would operate in opposition-controlled areas of Syria.
According to Jouejati, the failure of the government due to the fragmented nature of the opposition and the weak support of the international community would be a major victory for Assad.
“There are many factions within the opposition. It has received very limited support so far from the international community,” said Jouejati.
Jouejati said that there is a debate whether there should be a interim government or not, adding that it remains unclear how this government will operate in Syria and how it will be protected while the war in Syria is ongoing. “Who is going to provide direct funds to it? There are many questions about the establishment the government," said Jouejati.


El-Kharabawy's Muslim Brotherhood book becomes a bestseller
An Egyptian lawyer whose dissenting voice got him thrown out of the Muslim Brotherhood examines what he calls the group's hidden radicalism in a book that has become a best-seller in Cairo
Reuters, Wednesday 6 Mar 2013
Tharwat El-Kharabawy
Secret of the Temple by Tharwat El-Kharabawy (Photo: Al-Ahram)
Tharwat El-Kharbawy's "Secret of the Temple", recently published by Nahdet Masr publishing house, has been dismissed by Brotherhood leaders as part of a smear campaign.
But its success points to a deep mistrust harboured by some Egyptians towards a once-outlawed movement that has moved to the heart of power since Hosni Mubarak was toppled and its candidate secured the presidency.
In its 12th print run since November, the book is being sold in upmarket shops and on street corners, pointing to a thirst for information about a group whose inner workings remain a mystery months after President Mohamed Morsi came to power.
Expelled from the group a decade ago, El-Kharabawy says he aims to expose dictatorship and extremism inside the Brotherhood. In the process, he has joined a media war being waged to shape views in Egypt's deeply polarised political landscape.

Asked to comment on the book, one senior Muslim Brotherhood leader dismissed its content as "fallacies". Another said that to comment on such a book would be a waste of time.

"I want to make all people know the reality about the Brotherhood," El-Kharabawy said in an interview with Reuters.

El-Kharabawy sees the way he was kicked out of the Brotherhood as an illustration of the group's authoritarian streak.

He was disciplined in 2001 at a "Brotherhood court" for publishing three articles that criticised the group for not engaging with other opposition parties - a criticism still levelled at the Brotherhood today. "The Brotherhood does not know the virtue of differences of opinion," he said.
Demonised for decades by Egypt's military-backed autocracy, the Brotherhood sees such attacks as propaganda concocted by opponents who have struggled to get organised and carve out their place in the new order.

But El-Kharabawy's arguments resonate among those Egyptians who believe the Brotherhood aims to subvert new freedoms for their own ends to set up a new Islamist autocracy - a view hardened late last year when Morsi unilaterally expanded his powers.


El-Kharabawy has been extensively interviewed by independent Egyptian media that are broadly critical of the Brotherhood.

In his book, he explores the ideology of Morsi and the small group of leaders at the top of the movement, examining their devotion to Sayyid Qutb, a radical ideologue executed in 1966 for plotting to kill president Gamal Abdel Nasser.

Qutb, a Brotherhood leader, formulated some of the most radical ideas in political Islam. These included the idea that modern-day Muslim societies were living in a pre-Islamic state of ignorance. His most radical work, written while he was in prison, advocated violence to bring about change.
Morsi is on the record as defending Qutb as a thinker "who liberates the mind and touches the heart". In a 2009 talk show appearance posted on YouTube last year, Mursi said Qutb "finds the real vision of Islam that we are looking for".

Among Brotherhood watchers, it is no secret that the Brotherhood's current leadership were heavily influenced by Qutb, who also wrote more broadly on Islam.

But "trying to give the impression that Morsi is a Qutbist is an exaggeration" said Khalil El-Anani, an expert on Islamist movements. "Yes they are influenced by him in terms of the purity of ideas, but not in terms of believing in violence or judging people as non-believers," he said.

Brotherhood spokesman Ahmed Aref said the movement, like all groups, had rules that must be respected, adding that it was not the first time a member had left over the years and spoken out. "The difference this time is the media," he said.

A well-oiled campaign machine and grass-roots support base helped the Brotherhood sweep the first post-Mubarak parliamentary vote at the end of 2011, but the assembly was disbanded in June when Egypt's highest court declared the election rules unconstitutional.

Suspicion that the Brotherhood plans to dominate Egypt means the group may find it harder to win votes as fresh parliamentary elections near.

"They don't have people who can explain themselves in a good way, particularly those who talk to the Egyptian public," said Anani. "There is a huge gap of mistrust."

Catitan Sut:

Dua lapuran ini membawa dua message yang jauh berbeza. Satunya tentang serangan ke atas Ikhwan al-Muslimin di Masir yang tiada putus-putus dari segala arah, dan ini termasuk daripada bekas ahlinya yang dipecat. Kedua tentang apa yang diramal oleh penganalisa politik tentang keinginan Iran bagi mewujudkan kekuasaan golongan Alawi (Syiah Nusairiyyah) pasca pemerentahan Bashar al-Assad di Syria.

Noktah yang sama bagi kedua lapuran ini ialah apa yang kita boleh pelajari dari dua lapuran ini bagi kita melihat ke depan , mengambil pengajaran dengan mentauladani yang baik dan mensempadani yang buruk.

Agaknya penentangan terhadap Bashar pada peringkat awalnya tidak pernah terbayang yang ianya mengambil masa yang panjang dan melibatkan keganasan yang sangat mengerikan. Rupanya Bashar disokong kuat oleh Iran dan sekutunya Hizbullah, disamping sokongan daripada Russia dan China. Sekian ramai rakyat menjadi korban, perpecahan sesama rakyat yang menentang Bashar juga semakin ketara. Ada kumpulan yang menentang Bashar daripada golongan yang didukung oleh kuasa-kusa negara barat, ada yang diterajui oleh gerakan takfiri (salafi extreme) dan ada yang membawa pemahaman ulama Syria sendiri.

Kezaliman Bashar seakan telah diimbagi dengan keganasan pihak yang menentang beliau. Sehingga sesetengah episod-episod ganas itu belum dapat dipastikan siapa pelakunya yang sebenar; pihak Bashar atau pihak penentang.

Begitulah kezaliman, ianya kadang-kadang berbentuk lingkaran, berubah dari satu bentuk kezaliman kepada suatu bentuk kezaliman yang lain, dari satu kumpulan yang zalim kepada suatu kumpulan zalim yang lain. Kezaliman di tentang oleh kezaliman atas nama mahu menghapuskan kezaliman.

Kita memang kerap menyebut 'tujuan  tidak menghalalkan cara', bagaimanapun dalam kehidupan yang sebenarnya kita kerap mengadakan belbagai cara, tanpa sangat mengambil berat tentang penilaian agama terhadap cara-cara tersebut kerana berdalihkan segala itu perlu demi mencapai tujuan utama yang 'murni dan suci'. Kita sering terlupa sebenarnya faktor yang paling asas  membawa perubahan ke arah kebaikan ialah Tilikan Rahmat daripada Allah. Tilikan yang membawa berkat, rahmat dan keampunan. Kita sekadar pertaruhkan usaha, strategi dan resources kita di peringkat manusia semata-mata, walaupun kita melaungkan slogan 'Allahu akbar !'

Lapuran kedua seakan memperingatkan kita betapa pembenci--pembenci Islam kita akan berusaha bersungguh-sungguh untuk menggagalkan  golongan Islam dari berjaya dalam percubaan mereka untuk mengadakan sistem-sistem Islam dalam masyarakat.Mereka menyerang dari segala penjuru, seakan iblis mendatangi manusia- dari depan belakang, kiri dan kanan.  Bagaimanapun Iblis tidak menyebut dari atas dan bawah. Ulama mengatakan dari bawah itu maksudnya dengan sujud kepada Allah, dari atas maksudnya dengan jazab (senjahan) dari Allah.

Dari segi strategi, semakin gambaran dan slogan itu bermotif dan berbunyi agama, maka semakin tertariklah musuh-musuh Islam untuk menyerang. Semakin kuat gendang Islam dipalu, semakin kuatlah gema pihak musuh membalasnya. Kecermatan dan kewaspadaan paras tinggi amat diperlukan dalam mencatur langkah-langkah untuk melaksanakan agama, guna mengelak fitnah-fitnah dari pihak musuh. Jangan diikut resam ayam, bertelor sebutir, berketok sekampong, ikutlah resam penyu, bertelor seribu, tiada yang tahu.

Ulama menyebut berapa banyak amalan yang rupanya amalan dunia, tetapi dikira amalan akhirat kerana niatnya yang luhur ikhlas; berapa banyak amalan yang rupanya akhirat , tetapi dikira amalan dunia kerana niatnya yang tidak ikhlas. Dalam hidup bermasyarakat, jenama agama itu tidak sepenting content-nya yang' inspired' oleh agama, ruhnya agama walaupun ruh itu sesuatu yang ghaib daripada pandangan.

Kadang-kadang tonjolan yang biasa-biasa itu  lebih berjaya dari penonjolan yang penuh colorful berhiaskan agama.  Umpamanya kita umumkan sesuatu pada masyarakat yang sesuatu itu mahu dilaksanakan demi kepentingan agama,maka anggota masyarakat memang menunggu-nunggu kejayaan perancangan kita dan mereka mahu menjadi hakim-hakim untuk menjatuhkan hukum 'berjaya-gagal' bagi perancngan kita.  Sekiranya tanpa kita mengumumkan kita sebagai Islamic group, rancangan kita adalah kerangka Islamization of our country; maka harapan penyokong kita pun tidaklah ditiup sehingga terlampau tinggi. Mereka tidaklah tertunggu-tuinggu  mahu melihat perlaksanaan agama yang mungkin kita akan disekati oleh belbagai kelemahan dan ketaksiran belum bersedia untuk melaksanakannya. walaupun mungkin suatu masa dahulu kita bergegar-gegar  bersyarah tentang soal-soal itu.

Keupayaan memanafaatkan ruang masa dan luang peluang untuk mengisi perancangan berlandaskan ruh dan pengajaran agama itu sangat -sangat penting. Tidak mestinya perlu mengisi kerusi driver. Yang diperlukan ialah kebijaksanaan memandu arah perubahan , ini sangat penting, walaupun kita tidak berada di kerusi depan memulas stering. Tetapi stering itu dipulas kiri, kanan atau kekal lurus atas kekuatan nasihat kita. Bahkan sekarang bukan sedikit kererta yang mempunyai engine yang berkuasa tinggi dan efficient , driver yang berpenglaman serta cekap, tetapi yang menentukan arah pergerakan kereta itu bukan engine-nya yang gagah, bukan oleh driver-nya yang berpengalaman tetapi driver mengawal gerakan kereta berdasarkan dictation  GPS yang bersaiz sederhana, GPS menerima isyarat dari satelite yang di atas.

Memang kita perlukan kereta yang baik, kereta memerlukan driver yang baik. Bagaimanapun dalam terrain yang masih asing bagi kita, yang kita rely untuk sampai kepada tujuan perjalanan kita ialah maklumat yang dibekalkan GPS. Bagaimana agaknya sekiranya kita berperanan sebagai GPS pula?

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